Even as Moderna chugs through another post-pandemic year, the biotech has raised its COVID-19 vaccine revenue projection in the expectation that it can deliver a strong showing in the private market. And it's touting potential launches as it looks toward the next chapter.
After a severe second-quarter sales decline, the company raised its Spikevax sales guidance to a range of $6 billion to $8 billion, up from its previous forecast of $5 billion.
The company generated $344 million during the second quarter of 2023, a 93% decline from $4.75 billion it pulled down in the same period last year. Its quarterly loss came in at $1.4 billion.
While the total market size for COVID vaccines this fall remains unknown, Moderna said that new commercial contracts have enabled it to get a better grasp on expected sales for the rest of the year.
Moderna expects around 100 million COVID vaccine doses to be administered in the U.S. this fall, below the average of 150 million doses for an average flu season.
Moderna has described this year as "transitional" as it shifts some of its focus to other projects, including its respiratory syncytial virus vaccine.
As for that program, the company has initiated a rolling FDA submission. It expects to launch in 2024, behind rivals from GSK and Pfizer, which both won approvals this year.
While Moderna knows its vaccine will launch well behind formidable rivals, the company is “very confident” in what it believes is the “best-in-class profile” of its product, Chief Commercial Officer Arpa Garay said on a conference call. Moderna anticipates slower uptake at the start of the rollout, but it's hopeful a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommendation could jumpstart the launch.
Meanwhile, the company’s adjuvant melanoma vaccine is enrolling patients for a phase 3 trial. This one is tracking strongly with analysts, with Third Bridge’s Lee Brown flagging its “potential to profoundly change the treatment of melanoma,” the analyst wrote in a note to clients.